Peakflow Forecasts Header

ELK CREEK--NEAR DRAIN
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  43 37' 48" North    Longitude:  123 16' 48" West
   Elevation:  689 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  14'   Flood Stage:  16'   Moderate Flood Stage:  18'
   Major Flood Stage:  20'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

ELK CREEK--NEAR DRAIN   (ECDO3)
Forecasts for Water Year 2026
Ensemble Date: 2025-11-16
 Forecast Period: November 16 to March 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 5.22 739 2025-12-03
90 % 6.44 1126 2025-12-06
70 % 10.10 2805 2025-12-27
50 % 11.84 3903 2026-01-12
30 % 13.66 5252 2026-01-21
10 % 16.15 7392 2026-02-17
05 % 16.57 7772 2026-02-21

Peakflow exceedence plot for ECDO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon