Peakflow Forecasts Header

ELK CREEK--NEAR DRAIN
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  43 37' 48" North    Longitude:  123 16' 48" West
   Elevation:  689 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  14'   Flood Stage:  16'   Moderate Flood Stage:  18'
   Major Flood Stage:  20'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

ELK CREEK--NEAR DRAIN   (ECDO3)
Forecasts for Water Year 2027
Ensemble Date: 2026-10-13
 Forecast Period: October 13 to February 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 4.90 650 2026-11-28
90 % 6.13 1023 2026-12-03
70 % 9.39 2419 2026-12-19
50 % 11.35 3571 2026-12-30
30 % 13.54 5160 2027-01-11
10 % 16.79 7979 2027-01-20
05 % 18.94 10077 2027-01-23

Peakflow exceedence plot for ECDO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon