Peakflow Forecasts Header

CARBON--NEAR FAIRFAX
   State:  Washington    County:  PIERCE
   Latitude:  47 2' 0" North    Longitude:  122 1' 59" West
   Elevation:  1213 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Seattle    
   Action Stage:  11.6'   Flood Stage:  13.5'   Moderate Flood Stage:  14.5'
   Major Flood Stage:  15'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

CARBON--NEAR FAIRFAX   (FFXW1)
Forecasts for Water Year 2027
Ensemble Date: 2026-10-13
 Forecast Period: October 13 to February 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 8.70 1127 2026-11-03
90 % 9.27 1504 2026-11-06
70 % 10.82 3158 2026-11-28
50 % 11.82 4573 2026-12-17
30 % 12.86 6281 2026-12-29
10 % 13.99 8421 2027-01-20
05 % 14.56 9598 2027-01-28

Peakflow exceedence plot for FFXW1

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon