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BEAR CREEK--AT MEDFORD
   State:  Oregon    County:  JACKSON
   Latitude:  42 19' 59" North    Longitude:  122 52' 0" West
   Elevation:  1342 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  8'   Flood Stage:  10'   Moderate Flood Stage:  13'
   Major Flood Stage:  14'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

BEAR CREEK--AT MEDFORD   (MFDO3)
Forecasts for Water Year 2027
Ensemble Date: 2026-10-05
 Forecast Period: October 5 to February 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 3.19 148 2026-11-23
90 % 3.38 204 2026-11-29
70 % 4.17 491 2026-12-14
50 % 4.91 800 2026-12-29
30 % 5.79 1214 2027-01-10
10 % 7.29 2020 2027-01-19
05 % 8.51 3201 2027-01-22

Peakflow exceedence plot for MFDO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon