Peakflow Forecasts Header

JOHN DAY--AT SERVICE CK
   State:  Oregon    County:  WHEELER
   Latitude:  44 47' 38" North    Longitude:  120 0' 20" West
   Elevation:  1632 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Pendleton    
   Action Stage:  10'   Flood Stage:  11.5'   Moderate Flood Stage:  12.5'
   Major Flood Stage:  
15'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

JOHN DAY--AT SERVICE CK   (SERO3)
Forecasts for Water Year
2026
Ensemble Date: 2026-02-06
Forecast Period: February 6 to June 1
Exceedence
Probability
Stage
feet
Discharge
CFS
Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 6.37 4174 2026-02-10
90 % 6.37 4174 2026-02-10
70 % 6.77 4801 2026-03-16
50 % 8.24 7541 2026-03-28
30 % 9.18 9609 2026-04-24
10 % 11.58 16234 2026-05-14
05 % 12.41 19261 2026-05-20

Peakflow exceedence plot for SERO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon