Peakflow Forecasts Header

JOHN DAY--AT SERVICE CK
   State:  Oregon    County:  WHEELER
   Latitude:  44 47' 38" North    Longitude:  120 0' 20" West
   Elevation:  1632 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Pendleton    
   Action Stage:  10'   Flood Stage:  11.5'   Moderate Flood Stage:  12.5'
   Major Flood Stage:  
15'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

JOHN DAY--AT SERVICE CK   (SERO3)
Forecasts for Water Year
2026
Ensemble Date: 2026-09-10
Forecast Period: September 10 to January 1
Exceedence
Probability
Stage
feet
Discharge
CFS
Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 2.55 421 2026-11-13
90 % 2.73 507 2026-11-26
70 % 3.30 839 2026-12-10
50 % 3.97 1341 2026-12-18
30 % 5.10 2465 2026-12-22
10 % 7.63 6318 2026-12-31
05 % 8.22 7504 2026-12-31

Peakflow exceedence plot for SERO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon