Peakflow Forecasts Header

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  42 55' 48" North    Longitude:  122 56' 48" West
   Elevation:  1040 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  16'   Flood Stage:  18'   Moderate Flood Stage:  21'
   Major Flood Stage:  25'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER   (TILO3)
Forecasts for Water Year 2027
Ensemble Date: 2026-10-13
 Forecast Period: October 13 to February 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 4.38 1663 2026-11-20
90 % 6.39 3406 2026-11-29
70 % 8.65 6182 2026-12-13
50 % 10.97 10000 2026-12-30
30 % 13.08 14581 2027-01-12
10 % 16.08 22710 2027-01-25
05 % 17.55 27379 2027-01-26

Peakflow exceedence plot for TILO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon