Peakflow Forecasts Header

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  42 55' 48" North    Longitude:  122 56' 48" West
   Elevation:  1040 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  16'   Flood Stage:  18'   Moderate Flood Stage:  21'
   Major Flood Stage:  
25'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER   (TILO3)
Forecasts for Water Year
2026
Ensemble Date: 2026-02-14
Forecast Period: February 14 to June 1
Exceedence
Probability
Stage
feet
Discharge
CFS
Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 8.16 5885 2026-02-24
90 % 8.16 5886 2026-02-24
70 % 8.16 5891 2026-02-24
50 % 8.16 5895 2026-02-24
30 % 9.80 8504 2026-03-15
10 % 12.14 13199 2026-04-18
05 % 13.74 17051 2026-05-02

Peakflow exceedence plot for TILO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon