Peakflow Forecasts Header

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  42 55' 48" North    Longitude:  122 56' 48" West
   Elevation:  1040 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  16'   Flood Stage:  18'   Moderate Flood Stage:  21'
   Major Flood Stage:  
25'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER   (TILO3)
Forecasts for Water Year
2022
Ensemble Date: 2021-12-07
Forecast Period: December 7 to April 1
Exceedence
Probability
Stage
feet
Discharge
CFS
Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 5.51 2694 2021-12-26
90 % 6.11 3314 2021-12-28
70 % 8.37 6220 2022-01-10
50 % 8.94 7110 2022-01-20
30 % 11.24 11283 2022-02-16
10 % 16.82 25875 2022-03-20
05 % 18.20 30458 2022-03-28

Peakflow exceedence plot for TILO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon