Peakflow Forecasts Header

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  42 55' 48" North    Longitude:  122 56' 48" West
   Elevation:  1040 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  16'   Flood Stage:  18'   Moderate Flood Stage:  21'
   Major Flood Stage:  
25'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

S UMPQUA--AT TILLER   (TILO3)
Forecasts for Water Year
2025
Ensemble Date: 2025-07-02
Forecast Period: July 2 to November 1
Exceedence
Probability
Stage
feet
Discharge
CFS
Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 0.97 84 2025-07-08
90 % 1.33 160 2025-07-23
70 % 2.02 374 2025-10-11
50 % 2.59 602 2025-10-22
30 % 3.46 1026 2025-10-28
10 % 4.18 1478 2025-11-01
05 % 4.94 2080 2025-11-01

Peakflow exceedence plot for TILO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon