Peakflow Forecasts Header

N UMPQUA--AT WINCHESTER
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  43 16' 4" North    Longitude:  123 24' 33" West
   Elevation:  372 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  18'   Flood Stage:  26'   Moderate Flood Stage:  30'
   Major Flood Stage:  31'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

N UMPQUA--AT WINCHESTER   (WNRO3)
Forecasts for Water Year 2027
Ensemble Date: 2026-10-05
 Forecast Period: October 5 to February 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 5.82 7015 2026-11-19
90 % 6.57 8944 2026-11-22
70 % 9.05 16599 2026-12-14
50 % 11.34 24583 2026-12-30
30 % 13.74 33322 2027-01-10
10 % 19.10 54384 2027-01-19
05 % 22.36 67185 2027-01-24

Peakflow exceedence plot for WNRO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon