Peakflow Forecasts Header

N UMPQUA--AT WINCHESTER
   State:  Oregon    County:  DOUGLAS
   Latitude:  43 16' 4" North    Longitude:  123 24' 33" West
   Elevation:  372 feet
   Supporting WFO:  Medford    
   Action Stage:  18'   Flood Stage:  26'   Moderate Flood Stage:  30'
   Major Flood Stage:  31'

Forecasts are calculated from a forecast time series that approximates flow at a 6 hour time step interval. Observed instantaneous peaks can be higher than model forecast peaks.

N UMPQUA--AT WINCHESTER   (WNRO3)
Forecasts for Water Year 2026
Ensemble Date: 2025-11-15
 Forecast Period: November 15 to March 1
Exceedence
Probability 		Stage
feet 		Discharge
CFS 		Probable
Date of Peak
95 % 6.30 8028 2025-12-05
90 % 6.99 9916 2025-12-08
70 % 9.53 18246 2025-12-29
50 % 11.73 26009 2026-01-08
30 % 13.97 34192 2026-01-18
10 % 18.95 53787 2026-02-14
05 % 19.89 57431 2026-02-21

Peakflow exceedence plot for WNRO3

 Click to download runoff traces used in forecast.  Click for comma delimited data used in plot.csv icon